Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May gives a statement outside 10 Downing Street in London on Nov. 14, 2018, after holding a cabinet meeting in which her ministers backed the draft Brexit deal. (Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images)
Theresa May’s premiership has been declared dead before. After her election losses last year, the British Prime Minister appeared to be on the brink of resigning.
As she left 10 Downing Street on Thursday morning, members of her own party once again wondered: How long can she last? In the early morning hours, several British ministers resigned over May’s deal to leave the European Union, which was released on Wednesday. Theresa May likely expected some resignations, but one came unexpectedly: Dominic Raab, her second Brexit minister.
With the official who negotiated May’s Brexit deal writing that he “cannot support the proposed deal,” the British government was suddenly thrown into jeopardy.
May has come under attack from both sides of the political spectrum. Staunch Pro-Brexiteers argue that May’s deal does not go far enough and would keep Britain under the sway of the European Union, while taking away all powers to shape that bloc. Pro-European MPs, meanwhile, think that Britain should stay even closer aligned with E.U. laws and within the bloc’s customs union.
When May told the British parliament on Thursday that “we will leave the E.U. in an orderly way,” her remarks were met with laughter by MPs.
So, what could be next? Here are some of the likely scenarios.
Two key choices ahead
1) MPs vote in favor of May’s deal
Even though May’s deal pleases neither pro-European nor pro-Brexit MPs, the prime minister may still have some leverage to push through her deal or a modified version of it. The most powerful argument in her favor would be that the problem might not be her, but Brexit itself.
While her deal is imperfect on many levels, it would still help Britain avoid a “no deal” Brexit that could cost jobs and trigger a recession. At the same time, there has been cross-party agreement to respect the results of the 2016 referendum to leave the European Union. Many MPs who want to uphold that promise but are scared of a no-deal Brexit will back May.
2) MPs vote against May’s deal or dump her
Still, the prime minister is currently not believed to have the necessary votes for that to happen and with every minister resignation, chances are getting slimmer.
She can’t bank on much support from the opposition, as Scotland’s SNP party is disgruntled that it was left out of the negotiations and the Liberal Democrats will vote against the deal out of principle. Most Labour Party members are expected to also reject the agreement, partially because a May defeat increases the likelihood of a future Labour prime minister.
Worse even, May is facing a rebellion among her own allies. Pro-Brexiteers will vote against her deal and the party that has kept her in power since last year — the Northern Irish DUP — might join them. The DUP leadership fears that May’s deal could create a de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. That’s a red line for a party committed to keeping Northern Ireland fully within the United Kingdom.
Labour cannot topple May by itself, but the prime minister’s own allies may help with that. Moreover, if Northern Ireland’s DUP were to withdraw from their agreement to keep the Conservative Party — led by May or any successor — in power, then new general elections would be almost inevitable. Without the DUP, the Tories lack a majority in parliament.
What it means for Brexit
A no-deal Brexit is unpopular but may be inevitable
If May’s deal is rejected, chances of a no-deal Brexit rise. While leading pro-Brexiteers have said that they would prefer this scenario over a bad deal, a no-deal Brexit would likely not be a deliberate choice but instead an accidental outcome of a government unable to obtain a majority for any better solution.
Skyscrapers in the City of London on Nov. 14, 2018. (Photographer: Bryn Colton/Bloomberg)
All stakeholders know very well that a no-deal Brexit could have catastrophic repercussions on the British economy. As an island, Britain is dependent on its trade with the European Union and a no-deal Brexit would disrupt all those ties overnight. The government may have to ship in goods to keep supermarkets stocked and nobody knows for sure what the impact on the millions of Europeans working in the Britain would be.
Nothing really changes
Given the risks of a no-deal Brexit, parliament could theoretically reject May’s deal until Christmas and still approve a similar document next year.
But even then, it would be unclear what sort of relationship Britain would have with the European Union in the long term. How would Britain’s immigration policy look like, especially as think tanks predict that the country will face a severe labor shortage going forward? Could it stay in the customs union permanently to prevent a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the country?
Theoretically, Britain could extend the agreed transition period — in which Britain would continue to abide by E.U. rules without having a say on them — year after year, arguing that Britain isn’t ready to fully withdraw, yet. But in that case, Britain would only be outside the E.U. on paper.
That’s one of the reasons Labour leader Corbyn said on Thursday that he cannot accept having to choose between no deal and May’s deal.
Going back to Brussels
The question is what other choices there are. Corbyn has implied that going back to Brussels to get a better agreement could be one way out of the dilemma. But the E.U. has proven over the last year that it is bound by its own treaties and has little interest in adapting its rules to British demands.
Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the British opposition Labour party, on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018. (Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg)
It’s unclear why that would change under Corbyn, unless he agreed to stick to staying in the single market and the customs union. This would mean that Britain would essentially still be subject to E.U. laws, which has been rejected many times by all parties. Such a solution would probably only be possible in the unlikely scenario that Corbyn’s Labour Party campaigned on that promise in general elections and won an overwhelming mandate for it — or supported a second referendum.
A second referendum
Supporters of a new vote on Britain’s E.U. membership argue that a second referendum is not only an option but a must, given that the promises pro-Brexit politicians campaigned on have largely proven to be misleading. Critics maintain that posing the same question again because MPs didn’t like the British people’s response would ruin trust in British democracy.
Amid all the confusion, there’s one certainty, though: Britain has only four more months left to figure it all out. It’s set to either leave or crash out of the E.U. by March 29 next year.
Read more:
Britain’s Brexit secretary resigns over Theresa May’s plan to exit European Union
Credit:Washington Post
via USAHint.com
No comments:
Post a Comment