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(Phil Noble)
Britain’s tortuous path out of the European Union turned another twist this week, when Prime Minister Theresa May narrowly survived a no-confidence vote triggered by her own party.
Though May remains in office, the chaos and confusion are far from over. To avoid a “no-deal Brexit,” the weakened leader must still maneuver an unpopular exit agreement through Parliament before March. At this point, that seems nearly impossible.
How did a nation once the most powerful in the world end up here? Some have argued that the seeds of Brexit were planted in 2008, during the global economic crash and subsequent government austerity. Others look back further, suggesting Britain’s instinctive opposition to Europe is a legacy of World War II trauma. Skeptics of the European project date it to Britain’s first vote to join in 1975.
But the real groundwork for the vote was laid just six years ago, when then Prime Minister David Cameron promised to hold an “in or out” referendum on Europe. At the time, Cameron was seen as a fresh face for British conservatism. But he worried that old divisions within his party over Europe would fell him, like it did his predecessors John Major and Margaret Thatcher. The offer of a vote, he hoped, would unite his party and keep the anti-E.U. UKIP from stealing Conservative votes.
In the short term, Cameron’s gamble seemed to pay off. His party easily won the 2015 election, which was nowhere near as close as expected. UKIP gained just one seat in Parliament; it appeared that many Brits simply didn’t see the E.U. as the most pressing problem facing Britain.
That was about to change.
Cameron was confident that he could win the vote. But the playing field changed under him: a surge of refugees and a number of high-profile terrorist attacks across Europe, coupled with the spread of social media and misinformation, meant he could no longer make just a simple argument about E.U. bureaucracy.
Sensing changing political winds, a broader pro-Brexit coalition formed. Cameron wasn’t just fighting familiar figures like UKIP’s Nigel Farage (who tried to win a seat in Parliament five times and lost five times). Senior members of his own party, including the publicity-savvy Boris Johnson, decided to back Brexit, while Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s new leader, offered a tepid defense of remaining in the bloc for his own political reasons. The prime minister went hand-in-hat to Brussels, pleading for concessions, but he got little.
In the final weeks before the vote, polls swung wildly, revealing a deeply torn electorate and no easy path for Cameron. When the vote was held on June 23, 2016, Leave won by 52 percent. The value of the pound immediately plunged 8 percent on the news and Cameron announced he would resign, sparking a leadership contest within the ruling Conservative Party.
British prime minister David Cameron speaks outside 10 Downing Street in central London before going to Buckingham Palace to tender his resignation to Queen Elizabeth II on July 13, 2016. (Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images)
Theresa May was never much of a Brexit-eer. In fact, she unenthusiastically backed the vote to remain. But when it came time to elect a new prime minister, the Leave candidates split, and May won.
From the outset, May promised to support leaving the E.U., reassuring voters “Brexit means Brexit.” That was easier said than done. Within a few months, Britain’s high court ruled that parliament had to be consulted before a formal decision to leave was sent. British politicians ultimately approved May’s plan, but they added an amendment that required a “meaningful vote” on any final withdrawal agreement.
May tried to deal with this by calling a snap election in June 2017, hoping to increase the Conservative majority. Instead, she lost seats — forcing her to partner up with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party to govern. This added another layer of complexity to one of Brexit’s most intractable problems, the soft border with Ireland.
May persevered, but it became harder and harder to draft a winning proposal. When she laid out her plan for Brexit in July 2018, a number of government ministers resigned in protest, arguing that it offered too many concessions to Europe. In September, when May went to Salzburg, Austria, to explain her plan to E.U. leaders, they rejected it.
With time running out before March 29, 2019 — the date that Britain was due to come crashing out of Europe, deal or no deal — May made a desperate bid to reach agreement with E.U. leaders. Finally, in November, she came up with a draft accord. She took it back to her cabinet and gained their approval.
But the withdrawal agreement May got from the E.U. was an uncomfortable compromise for many Brits. The 585-page document created a transition period, which would essentially keep Britain in the bloc’s Customs Union until 2020, and possibly longer. Brexiteers called it a betrayal, while those who wanted to remain continued to demand a second referendum on the terms of the deal.
Parliament was scheduled to hold a “meaningful vote” on May’s deal on Tuesday. On Monday, apparently having concluded she would lose this vote, May canceled it. She’s now headed back to Europe to try to come up with an improved deal. It’s unlikely she’ll get much: Many of the biggest sticking points in Brexit negotiations, such as the border in Ireland, are as unresolved as they were in June 2016. The threat of a “no-deal Brexit,” which many say could have disastrous economic repercussions for Britain, is as strong as ever.
At this point, May is also increasingly unpopular among her own party, weakening her negotiating power even further. Indeed, the only one thing working in May’s favor seems to be that no one wants her job.
And why would they?
It’s unclear what kind of deal, if any, would win support from a majority of Parliament, let alone a majority of Brits. Hope for another referendum is spreading but that is at best a least-worst option. Thanks to the Brexit debate, a majority of British voters now see the E.U. as the single biggest issue facing the country. There are some who voted for Brexit and now regret it, but also those who voted to remain who want to leave the E.U. and end the purgatory.
Indeed, looking back at the long and winding road that led Britain to its current chaos, there’s only one real conclusion: The Brexit story is a long way from over.
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This story was originally published by Washington Post
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