Confused about Brexit? You’re not alone! Britain’s path to leaving the European Union has gotten rather complicated and long, full of forks in the road, U-turns and more than a few dead ends. Even seasoned Brexit watchers have been left at a loss for words.
But have no fear. Below, we’ve answered some of the most pressing questions about Brexit.
Q: What is Brexit?
A: British Prime Minister Theresa May has said “Brexit means Brexit.” But what that actually means is that Britain is going to leave the European Union. This would mean giving up the automatic free movement and free trade rights that come with E.U. membership.
Q: Why is Britain leaving the E. U.?
A: That’s a big debate. But basically, it’s because Britain voted to do so in a referendum on June 23, 2016. Those voters who wanted out of the E.U. and to “take back control” of Britain’s laws and borders won 52 to 48 percent.
Q: So Britain is definitely leaving the E. U.?
A: Probably.
Q: Probably!?
A: First Britain and the E.U. need to reach a withdrawal agreement.
Q: A withdrawal agreement? Is that different from a trade deal?
A: Yes. The withdrawal agreement outlines how Britain will leave the E.U. — things like a timetable for a transition period, what happens to E.U. nationals living in Britain and the amount of money that Britain has to pay the E.U. A trade deal would establish an independent Britain’s future economic relationship with the E.U.
Q: Okay, how’s that going?
A: Not so well.
Q: But I thought May got a deal?
A: Well, May’s government has drawn up a withdrawal agreement, and the E.U. has agreed to it. But first, Britain’s Parliament needs to approve it. Lawmakers were scheduled to debate it and vote on it on Tuesday. But that’s now delayed.
Q: Delayed!?
A: Yes. Almost all predictions suggested that May’s compromise Brexit would be defeated in Parliament. Not wanting to face a potentially devastating defeat, May announced Monday that she would be delaying the vote.
Q: What would that mean?
A: May will likely head to Brussels again in a last-ditch effort to try to get a deal that her Conservative Party would support. But it is hard to imagine that she will get a better deal than her E.U. negotiators have accepted — or even that there is any single deal that could get past the current Parliament.
Q: Yikes!
A: Yep, that’s the correct response. Oh, also, some Brits want a “People’s Vote.”
Q: This all sounds like a lot. How long do they have to sort it out?
A: Technically the ultimate deadline is March 29, unless an extension is agreed upon.
Anti-Brexit supporter Steve Bray of Wales protested outside the Houses of Parliament in London. (Matt Dunham/AP)
Q: But would Britain’s Parliament vote on the withdrawal agreement considering that a referendum has already been held?
A: The referendum itself was never legally binding. May and the British government had originally hoped they would not have to turn to Parliament, but that didn’t work. Britain is a parliamentary democracy, meaning that Parliament is sovereign. After a lengthy debate, it was agreed that Parliament will get a “meaningful vote” on the deal.
Q: But what does that mean in practice?
A: Parliament began an extraordinary five-day debate over May’s Brexit deal last week. An up-or-down vote was set for Tuesday.
Q: So, this withdrawal agreement has the full support of May’s government?
A: Ha! No, of course not. Indeed, the high level of opposition became obvious during last week’s debate. There are plenty of people within May’s own ruling Conservative Party who want to remain in the E.U., as well as many hardcore Brexiteers who don’t support her plan for the opposite reason.
Q: Huh? I thought they wanted Brexit.
A: They do, but they feel like May has made too many concessions to Europe with this deal.
Q: What sort of Brexit did they want?
A: Many Brexiteers want an agreement that keeps the economic benefits of the E.U. but ends free movement, takes away E.U. control over Britain’s trade laws and avoids a hard Irish border (more on all this later).
Q: Who are they, by the way?
A: The most notable ones are Boris Johnson, May’s former foreign secretary, and Jacob Rees Mogg, another member of the Conservatives. But there are many others.
Q: What is the worst-case scenario for Brexit?
A: Probably the “doomsday” scenario of a “no-deal Brexit,” whereby Britain has to revert to World Trade Organization trade rules at its borders because it cannot reach an agreement with Europe.
Q: Why would that be so bad?
A: It would likely cause major changes to British trade, resulting in serious disruption to almost every aspect of Britain’s business. An International Monetary Fund projection this week warned that up to 8 percent of Britain’s gross domestic product could be lost.
A British Union flag is held aloft bearing slogans during the People’s Vote March, in London last month. (Yui Mok/AP)
Q: Yikes. Are people prepared for that?
A: Cadbury’s started stockpiling the ingredients for chocolate. So maybe that part of British life will be okay.
Q: How likely is this?
A: It’s definitely possible. One study that came out before May made her deal estimated there were five possible scenarios for Brexit. All but one resulted in no deal.
Q: So is this likelihood lesser now?
A: Hardly. Scores of members of Parliament have said they will vote against May’s deal. If that deal fails, it’s not clear if anyone could replace it — or if there is even time to reach a new deal before March.
Q: Does the E.U. want a no-deal for Britain?
A: European leaders have voiced real concerns about a no-deal Brexit. It could potentially disrupt their own agreements, too, remember. But the E.U. is also worried about other countries trying to leave, so it is driving a hard bargain with Britain and offering few concessions.
Q: Does Britain’s opposition party oppose Brexit?
A: Labour is split on Brexit generally but is likely to oppose May’s deal for political reasons. However, it is unlikely to stop Brexit anytime soon: Its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, said recently that Brexit could not be stopped.
Q: Does anyone want to stop Brexit?
A: Yes. Lots of politicians in both the Labour and Conservative parties do want to stop it, while smaller parties, such as the Liberal Democrats, actively campaign against it.
Sinn Fein activists wearing face masks depicting British MP Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Theresa May took part in a rally against Brexit and any hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland in Belfast last month. (Paul Faith/AFP/Getty Images)
Q: Could Brexit be stopped?
A: Theoretically, yes — a point May herself recently alluded to for the first time after reaching her draft agreement. The European Union’s highest court also ruled Monday that Britain could unilaterally reverse its decision to leave. But it would be a risky move politically.
Q: Couldn’t they just have a second referendum?
A: The idea of a second referendum (a “People’s Vote”) on the final terms has considerable support among the public, but politicians are hesitant, as it could unleash further political chaos.
Q: How would Britain vote if that happened?
A: Hard to say, but many polls do suggest that British voters have grown more opposed to Brexit over the past two years.
Q: Okay, let’s back up. What is E.U. freedom of movement, and why didn’t Brexiteers like it?
A: Citizens of the European Union are entitled to move around the nation states. For many in the pro-Brexit camp, immigration was a major issue with the rest of Europe.
Q: And what is the Customs Union? And the Single Market?
A: The E.U. Customs Union means it negotiates trade laws as a bloc, and the Single Market means that Europe has no trade barriers within it. Pro-Brexit voices hope that by leaving Europe, Britain can negotiate its own, better trade deals.
Q: What is the big issue with the Irish border?
A: If Britain were to leave the Customs Union and the Single Market, there could be a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, where border checks are now minimal.
Q: Why is that a problem?
A: It could jeopardize the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and, with it, the Northern Ireland peace process. It also would likely have a significant impact on trade. Plus, May needs to get her political partner in Northern Ireland (the Democratic Unionist Party) and the Irish government on her side.
Q: Did May’s deal solve all this?
A: Kind of. But also, not really.
Stickers are pasted on the Cabinet Office door after an anti-Brexit march through central London last month. (Simon Dawson/Reuters)
Q: How so?
A: In the Brexit withdrawal agreement’s 585 pages, the most notable outcome was the creation of a transition period, which would essentially keep Britain in the bloc’s Customs Union until 2020, and possibly past then.
Q: And that solves the Irish border problem?
A: No, but it appears to provide a “backstop” and pledges to sort it out in the future.
Q: What is a backstop, in this situation?
A: Basically, it’s an insurance agreement that even if a broader agreement cannot be worked out, there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Q: And freedom of movement?
A: E.U. nationals living in Britain and Brits living in E.U. states will retain their rights, but they will have to formally apply for status to remain in the country.
Q: This doesn’t sound like it would please everyone.
A: It doesn’t. As we noted before, both pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit camps have voiced opposition.
Q: Does anyone have a better idea?
A: Others claim to. Corbyn says he could solve the Irish border problem without a backstop, for example, and avoid a no-deal Brexit. But we probably won’t find out how these ideas work in practice unless May loses her job.
Q: Wait, May could lose her job?
A: Yes. She may be forced from office with a no-confidence vote, or she might even resign. It’s unclear who would replace her, though. Corbyn, Johnson and Rees Mogg are all names in the hat.
Q: What would happen then?
A: ‾\_(ツ)_/‾
Q: I have more questions that were not answered here.
A: We all do. Send them to us, and we’ll try to answer them in an update.
William Booth and Karla Adam contributed to this report.
This story was originally published by Washington Post
via USAHint.com
No comments:
Post a Comment