Can Stacey Abrams Overcome the Curse of the SOTU Rebuttal?

By Melina Mara/The Washington Post/Getty Images.

With the State of the Union back on, Democrats have announced their envoy to deliver the party’s traditional rebuttal: Stacey Abrams, who lost her race for governor of Georgia last year, but became a political superstar in the process. “She is just a great spokesperson, she’s an incredible leader, [and] she has led the charge for voting rights, which is at the root of just about everything else,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday during a press conference.

Abrams was an easy pick for Schumer, who also wants her to run for Senate. “Schumer and Abrams have known each other a while, vis a vis Georgia politics, even before she ran for governor,” a person familiar with Schumer’s thinking told me. “He’s been really impressed with her and thought she would be a great choice.”

Highlighting Abrams is sure to pour gasoline on her already-bright career. Though she lost her election in November, thanks in part to alleged voter suppression, Abrams, a black woman, came within 1.4 percentage points of beating her Republican rival in a state that Donald Trump won by 5.1 points. In the weeks since, Abrams hasn’t faded from the headlines: she is reportedly being courted by the D.N.C. to run for the Senate in 2020, and has also spoken publicly about taking another shot at the governor’s mansion in 2022.

Still, delivering the rebuttal can pour gasoline on a career in the bad way, too. The post-State of the Union speech—a tradition that began in 1966 when Gerald Ford went on television to rip into Lyndon Johnson—has a reputation humbling politicians on the rise. More often than not, the opposition party’s sacrificial lamb struggles to adapt to the awkward format, staring into a camera in an obviously staged setting, unable to match the operatic grandeur of the House chamber. There is no applause, no pageantry, no live audience, and—in the infamous case of Marco Rubio—nothing to distract from the excruciating sound of dry mouth. “If anybody can actually deliver a good State of the Union response, which most scientists believe is not physically possible under conventional interpretations of physics,” quipped FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, “they should not only run for president but should probably just become president automatically.”

Full ScreenPhotos: Is the State of the Union Response Cursed?

Senator Bob Dole (1994, 1996)

Double the State of the Union responses, double the failed presidential campaigns.

Trent Lott (1998)

After becoming Senate Majority Leader, Lott made the fatal mistake of singing “Happy Birthday” to and praising noted segregationist and infamous racist Strom Thurmond. He resigned his leadership position amid the ensuing controversy, and left the Senate a few years later. Much as a dying star collapses into a black hole, sucking even light into its inescapable maw, Lott is now a lobbyist.

Jim Webb (2007)

The former Virginia senator is today best known for launching a bizarrely half-hearted 2016 presidential campaign, bragging during the first Democratic debate about having killed a man, and then unceremoniously dropping out, back into semi-obscurity.

Kathleen Sebelius (2008)

The former Kansas governor resigned as Health and Human Services secretary months after the botched healthcare.gov rollout—though, if you talk to her and the Obama administration, that totally wasn’t the reason she stepped down. No, not at all.

Marco Rubio (2013)

Admittedly, his success in the Republican presidential race thus far indicates that Rubio’s infamous “water bottle” moment hasn’t hurt his chances much. But try as he might, Rubio can’t escape his association with water and sweating. A few self-conscious attempts to own his meme largely failed to convince critics that the joke isn’t at his expense.

Joni Ernst (2015)

While it’s too early to tell if her political career will tank, Ernst’s odd anecdote about wearing bags for shoes as a child was an inauspicious start. While this claim is actually true—and indeed resonated with her constituents in Iowa—it’s hard to tell how that, combined with her comments about castrating pigs, will propel her to president.

Gerald Ford (1966)

As a reminder to Governor Haley to beware the future, here’s Gerald Ford announcing on Meet the Press that he’d be giving the very first response to the State of the Union, and, perhaps, inadvertently dooming himself to failure.

Senator Bob Dole (1994, 1996)

Double the State of the Union responses, double the failed presidential campaigns.

Trent Lott (1998)

After becoming Senate Majority Leader, Lott made the fatal mistake of singing “Happy Birthday” to and praising noted segregationist and infamous racist Strom Thurmond. He resigned his leadership position amid the ensuing controversy, and left the Senate a few years later. Much as a dying star collapses into a black hole, sucking even light into its inescapable maw, Lott is now a lobbyist.

Jim Webb (2007)

The former Virginia senator is today best known for launching a bizarrely half-hearted 2016 presidential campaign, bragging during the first Democratic debate about having killed a man, and then unceremoniously dropping out, back into semi-obscurity.

Kathleen Sebelius (2008)

The former Kansas governor resigned as Health and Human Services secretary months after the botched healthcare.gov rollout—though, if you talk to her and the Obama administration, that totally wasn’t the reason she stepped down. No, not at all.

Bobby Jindal (2009)

Bob McDonnell (2010)

Four years after he gave his State of the Union response, the rising star became the first Virginia governor to be convicted on federal corruption charges. (The trial itself was quite lurid, with McDonnell and his wife turning on each other in a dramatic attempt to escape charges.)

Paul Ryan (2011)

The former vice-presidential candidate is now the Speaker of the House, a job so bad that former Speaker John Boehner literally sang for joy when he resigned.

Marco Rubio (2013)

Admittedly, his success in the Republican presidential race thus far indicates that Rubio’s infamous “water bottle” moment hasn’t hurt his chances much. But try as he might, Rubio can’t escape his association with water and sweating. A few self-conscious attempts to own his meme largely failed to convince critics that the joke isn’t at his expense.

Joni Ernst (2015)

While it’s too early to tell if her political career will tank, Ernst’s odd anecdote about wearing bags for shoes as a child was an inauspicious start. While this claim is actually true—and indeed resonated with her constituents in Iowa—it’s hard to tell how that, combined with her comments about castrating pigs, will propel her to president.

Gerald Ford (1966)

As a reminder to Governor Haley to beware the future, here’s Gerald Ford announcing on Meet the Press that he’d be giving the very first response to the State of the Union, and, perhaps, inadvertently dooming himself to failure.

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